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Hold On To Your Seats, Survey USA Senate Race Poll Results Due Out Tonight At 6 PM

 WHAS 11 is reporting that a new poll in the United States Senate race is coming tonight:

Be sure to watch at 6pm tonight on WHAS11 News for the exclusive poll results. 

On August 18, the WHAS11/Survey USA poll gave Republican Secretary of State Trey Grayson a 37% to 26% lead over Bowling Green eye doctor Rand Paul.  The August poll also indicated that Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo led Attorney General Jack Conway 39% to 31% in the Democratic Primary.

Stay tuned at 6pm for a snapshot of where both primary races stand today.

POLITICO: Uncivil War-The Conservative Challenge To GOP Officials

It has been brewing for many years, a sense that the leaders at the top of the republican party were manipulating the system to secure their power and to discourage the emergence of a conservative grassroots effort.  As Jeremiah Wright might have himself said about the situation, the chickens are coming home to roost.

POLITICO has written that this could prove "a nightmare scenario" for party officials.

In what could be a nightmare scenario for Republican Party officials, conservative activists are gearing up to challenge leading GOP candidates in more than a dozen key House and Senate races in 2010.

Conservatives and tea party activists had already set their sights on some of the GOP’s top Senate recruits — a list that includes Gov. Charlie Crist in Florida, former Rep. Rob Simmons in Connecticut and Rep. Mark Kirk in Illinois, among others.

But their success in Tuesday’s upstate New York special election, where grass-roots efforts pushed GOP nominee Dede Scozzafava to drop out of the race and helped Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman surge into the lead on the eve of Election Day, has generated more money and enthusiasm than organizers ever imagined.

Activists predict a wave that could roll from California to Kentucky to New Hampshire and that could leave even some GOP incumbents — Utah Sen. Bob Bennett is one — facing unexpectedly fierce challenges from their right flank.

“I would say it’s the tip of the spear,” said Dick Armey, the former GOP House majority leader who now serves as chairman of FreedomWorks, an organization that has been closely aligned with the tea party movement. “We are the biggest source of energy in American politics today.”

“What you’re going to see,” said Armey, “is moderates and conservatives across the country in primaries.”

Sound familiar Kentucky?

Uh-Oh! Guess Who's Coming To Dinner In The Ky Senate Race?

We told you more than a month ago that if Trey Grayson seemed to be fading, that it was not beyond Mitch McConnell to change horses.  McConnell is constantly checking the political winds in making his very calculated moves.  Well guess who is push polling tonight in the Kentucky US Senate race?

I have it from two very reliable sources that a "push poll" hit the phones last night and again tonight, in Central and Northern Kentucky, about 15 minutes in length which by all indications was testing the waters for a run by Cathy Bailey.

With the recent developments in the NY 23rd Congressional district showing that the GOP candidate can and would likely be beaten by the Conservative Party candidate, with the huge financial success of Rand Paul in the third quarter compared to the money raised by Trey Grayson, and with the Rand Paul campaign outpacing Trey Grayson in both statewide and national press coverage, might a "push poll" for Cathy Bailey be an indication that McConnell is losing confidence in Grayson?

Stay tuned folks.  This is getting very interesting.

***UPDATED*** Ha Ha For Halloween: David Adams Puts A Funny Face On Trey Grayson

***UPDATE***  9:45 am:  Apparently Grayson has now pulled the post down from his FaceBook page.

Again and again the Rand Paul campaign seems to find a way to tell Trey Grayson he is in for a fight and to remind voters just how young he is.  This time David Adams finds the perfect funny face to put on Trey just in time for Halloween.

Trey Grayson posted a link on his FaceBook page to an odd ball article about a burglary where the bad guys painted their faces with magic markers instead of wearing masks.

Adams was quick to respond:

"I have received the attached screenshot of Trey Grayson's FaceBook page on which he posted a ridiculous story about two robbers employing "the worst disguise ever" by drawing fake masks on their faces with permanent marker."

 

"A far worse disguise is the gaffe-prone Grayson posing as a ready-for-primetime federal candidate representing Kentucky. After the Bailout Ball, attacking fellow Republicans for moving to Kentucky to work and raise children, and sending a video stalker to a charity event, it's clear Trey Grayson is the one wearing a mask, pretending to be mature enough to run for the United States Senate in 2010."

 

"The fast-growing campaign of Dr. Rand Paul based on balanced budgets, conservative values, and creating jobs by promoting capitalism rather than bailouts and stimulus bills stands as a stark contrast to Grayson's childish antics and Kentucky Republicans are gathering in support of Rand's strong, steady effort."

Adams has a point.  There are very serious issues facing our Commonwealth and Nation right now and we need a mature engaged Senator to address those issues.  It is a bit odd that a candidate for the high office of United States Senator would be playing on FaceBook like this while hard working Kentuckians are being asked to donate money to his campaign.

Just imagine if Jim Bunning had been up late at night playing like this on  Facebook.  What do you think the press would be be reporting in the morning? 

Is this how Grayson plans on convincing voters that he is US Senate material?

One Writer Concerned About A "Problem Election" In Ky Senate Race

I guess it is always a good idea to be a bit cautious in these times when elections are often decided by judges after the voters have spoken.  Now one writer expresses some concerns regarding the upcoming Senate race in Kentucky. I'm not sure many share his concern, but he makes a good point, Grayson needs to reassure the public sometime before the election that there is nothing to be concerned about.

Mark Gallagher, writing for Liberty Maven had this to say:

The neo-conservative principles found in much of today’s establishment Republican Party are purely Machiavellian. They will lie, cheat, and steal to maintain power or stomp on anyone in their path. This has me concerned about the Rand Paul vs. Trey Grayson Kentucky GOP primary. The war of words are beginning to fly between the candidates. A potential larger problem is brewing though that has little to do with the campaign. It has to to with the election itself.

No, I’m not talking about the voting machines. What I’m talking about is this:

READ MORE

Rand Paul Campaign's Golden Touch

Rand Paul's campaign is phenomenal.  No matter what Trey Grayson does Paul's folks have an uncanny knack for seizing the moment for themselves.

Last week WYMT reported in advance of Monday's airing, that Grayson claimed during an interview that Paul was "not a Kentuckian".  In a matter of minutes it seemed the Internet and mainstream news sources, were buzzing with Paul's response that he has been a Kentuckian far longer than Grayson has been a republican.

Then Paul added fuel to the fire by his good natured call for Grayson to send him a check, either a government one or a personal one, as a refund of all the Kentucky taxes Paul had been paying over the years some of which had been paying Grayson's salary.  The banter was lighthearted but it was Paul who got the attention and more favorably than Grayson from the affair.

Today a Youtube video surfaced in which a stone faced young man (allegedly a Grayson employee) is seen video taping Rand Paul cooking at a charity event.  Chris Hightower, employed by Rand Paul, tries to get the young man to speak and with a good deal of humor answers for him every time "no comment".  The Grayson person is supposed to be a "tracker", someone who follows a candidate around to capture footage for use later in attack commercials.

So how did Paul come out of this one?  With a bunch of favorable, lighthearted press again making Grayson look like the dark force lurking around looking for a chance to pounce and Paul like the more open and charitable of the two.

Whether it is by luck or not, the Paul campaign seems to have a golden touch so far.  No matter what is thrown in their direction they seem to find a way to turn it into something of value for their candidate.  This is becoming a daily event, watching to see how deftly Paul handles himself against what many considered to be the more politically sophisticated Grayson.

So far it's been all Paul.

Is Voting For Trey Grayson Insane?

Two things crossed my desk in the pre-dawn light today.  First was a statement by Glenn Beck from last night's program.  Beck was explaining why the republicans, including Newt, were crazy to endorse the republican in New York's upcoming special Congressional election.  The second was a statement from the Rand Paul campaign about a Trey Grayson comment on WYMT.

First the NY Congressional race: Doug Hoffman is a conservative running as a candidate of the Conservative Party.  His republican opposition is Dede Scozzafava, hardly a conservative at all. Hoffman has the likes of Sarah Palin, Fred Thompson, Steve Forbes and Tim Pawlenty behind him.  Scozzafava has the republican political machine behind her.  When asked why he was supporting the moderate instead of the conservative Newt said this:

The choice in New York is a practical one: We can split the conservative vote and guarantee the election of a Democrat in a Republican seat in a substantial loss of opportunity. Or we can find a way to elect someone who has committed to vote for the Republican leader

The statement by Glenn Beck which crossed my desk was directed at Newt's reasoning and quite frankly, according to the logic advanced by Beck, Newt's reasoning would be characterized as insane.  Beck quoted Albert Einstein who said that insanity is when you keep "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Beck made the point that time after time we continue to vote for the same reasons, along party lines, supporting the candidates advanced by the party leaders, and in the end we do not solve our problems, they only get worse.  In order to break this cycle we must do something different, not fall in line behind the party, but to begin thinking for ourselves.

The second thing which crossed my desk this morning was a quote from David Adams, the campaign manager for Dr. Rand Paul.  Adams was commenting on the appearance of Paul's opponent Trey Grayson on WYMT last night.

"Speaking on WYMT Hazard's Issues and Answers program Monday evening, Trey Grayson said 'I think I've got mainstream Kentucky views on the economy, on health care, on coal, and everything else.'"

 

"That's just it, though. Mainstream views on these things have left us with a job-creation problem, severe education problems, health problems, out-of-control government and debt up to our eyebrows. We can't get out of this mess by continuing to do the things that got us here in the first place. Rand Paul is running for the U.S. Senate to help move us out of the mainstream and away from making the same old mistakes."

 

"In a time of politicians trampling Constitutional limits in order to bail out their friends and increase their own power, we need someone with break-the-mold credentials who can inspire real government reform. That person is Rand Paul."

The combination of these two items of interest poses a very interesting question.  If Einstein is right, might a vote for Trey Grayson be insane?

Sandbox Politics Comes To Senate Race

"You are not"!

"I am too"!

"No you're not"  "Yes I am"

Okay, look, Trey Grayson's bizarre comment that Rand Paul is not a Kentuckian clearly made Grayson look silly and desperate.  Paul's campaign could have been content to let us "nattering nabobs" in the blogosphere kick the issue around and clear it up. Instead they issued a response citing Paul's long history in Kentucky, questioning Grayson's background as a democrat and dragging Paul's wife into the mess by bragging about how long her family has lived in Kentucky. 

What's next?  Will Grayson claim that his daddy can beat up Paul's daddy?

Paul's campaign so far has gotten more money and more attention than anybody predicted back in the spring when all the talk was about how Grayson and McConnell were conspiring to push Jim Bunning out of the race. 

Paul's openness in discussing issues has served him well to date.  It has increased his name identification and clearly he has tapped into a feeling of discontent within the republican ranks.  In fact since Paul is the only one discussing issues, some have even questioned whether Grayson is still really running since he has gotten so little press by comparison. (We get mulitple releases from the Paul campaign daily, Grayson has virtually gone dark)

But now people are beginning to speculate whether Grayson is lying in wait, hoping Paul gets overexposed and eventually punches himself out giving Grayson the chance to start running hard, punching harder and getting all the press closer to the election in May, when voters really start to pay attention.

If Grayson's strategy in making a snide remark about Paul was to see how Paul would react, now he knows.  Paul has signaled that he is not going to let anything roll off his back and he is likely to counter punch every time Grayson jabs. 

Sometimes counter punching is a good thing, but there is a downside.  For those unfamiliar with street fighting what they don't know is that predictability works to a more savvy opponents advantage.  Knowing how your opponent is going to fight gives you the chance to time your knock out punch.

Grayson may be quiet now but with the more experienced McConnell team on his side Grayson certainly has access to the kind of advice that must be respected, and matched, if Paul expects to go the distance and win the decision.

Ky GOP Must Be Nervous

Many stood by Ernie Fletcher for his anti-gambling position.  They then stood back as he went through the meat grinder suspecting all along that it was the gambling industry turning the crank.  For years before and after the Fletcher administration the Kentucky GOP stood strongly against expanded gambling in Kentucky and enjoyed increasing numbers in the House and a solid majority in the Senate.  Now things have changed.

Damon Thayer, GOP senator from Georgetown whose district also includes Owen, Grant and part of Kenton county, seems to be the point person for pushing a constitutional amendment to permit a vote on gambling in Kentucky.  What a shame.

It is a well known fact that Steve Beshear promised so much to the casino folks that his political life depends on passing a gambling bill.  You'd think from a political point of view the GOP would want to deny him that success and in turn diminish his chances fora second term.  Thayer's proposal does just the opposite.

Thayer's proposal is also an acknowledgment that Beshear has succeeded in picking apart the GOP, which has apparently made them nervous.  Beshear has openly targeted the Senate majority by giving plum jobs to republican senators like Charlie Borders and then helping his democratic opponent to win the open seat.   With GOP floor leader Dan Kelly poised to get a judicial appointment, the slim majority David Williams has controlled could diminish even further.

Williams is a master politician.  He has done a couple of smart things in this move.  First, he put Thayer out front.  Thayer has a long history working within the horse industry.  I'm sure they haven't been happy with his stance on gambling until now. 

Second, Williams is smart enough to know that he holds the cards in the Senate meetings this Spring, and the November 2010 elections are likely to trend republican in Kentucky.  Don't be surprised if he hasn't made a deal or two to keep some of his precious senators safe from the Governor and Greg Stumbo's meddling.

But there is always a danger in making deals with and caving into democrats.  They historically do what they want anyway and regard any deals with republicans as non-binding according to their own rules of battle.

Last go around the majority of people in counties without race tracks were strongly opposed to gambling.  If Thayer is right and 80% of the people want to vote on the issue, unless he has polling to the contrary, many of them want to vote against it and may vote against those who opened the starting gate by proposing a constitutional amendment in the first place.

It's a high stakes gamble which should make the bettors a little bit nervous.

Rand Paul Embraces Pro-Life Movement

This from the Rand Paul campaign:

Tuesday October 20, 2009 is Pro-Life Day of Silent Solidarity in which students at nearly 4000 schools and numerous homeschoolers refrain from speaking for a day to draw attention to those children permanently silenced by the atrocity of abortion.

Participating students observe the day by not speaking and responding to questioners by distributing educational materials and praying for the victims of abortion.

Rand Paul supports the efforts of these students and pledges to do everything in his power as a United States Senator to end abortion.