Trey Grayson: Painted Into A Corner?

Trey Grayson tried to make a big media splash on the Tuesday after the fourth of July by announcing far in advance of the usual July 15th deadline, that he had raised $600,000 for his exploratory committee formed to measure his chances should he decide to run for the United States Senate seat currently held by two term Senator Jim Bunning.  However fast the roar of his bravado raced over the landscape, it has just as quickly faded.

Grayson’s camp had been pushing the story for weeks that he was holding one fundraiser after another, at near break neck speed, so he could make a strong showing by the end of June.  Time and time again his people pushed the story that Trey was on track to hold fundraisers all across the state and show up at the finish line bursting at the seams with cash.  And yet, in the end, he only shows up with $600,000? 

Now don’t get me wrong, Trey’s numbers are significant, but remember, all things are relative.

Take for example committed democrat candidate Jack Conway.  His camp made it look like he was merely strolling around Kentucky, never even breaking a sweat as he gathered up money from enthusiastic supporters in virtually every corner of the Commonwealth. In fact, unconfirmed reports say that Conway is expected to more than double Grayson’s take for the quarter, by posting somewhere near $1.3 million in contributions.  Relatively speaking, this is a dramatic contrast between two young and promising public servants.

Some say that Conway’s primary opponent, Daniel Mongiardo, will barely be able to pay his cell phone bill after two dismal quarters of dialing for dollars. Once all the numbers are in, considering Kentucky’s left leaning press, the headlines will no doubt make Conway’s fortunes look considerably brighter.

What many except KyGOP political insiders might miss in all of this is the fact that Grayson’s breathless scramble to accumulate money was likely done to impress upon Mitch McConnell that Grayson is a real “contender”.  Time and time again in order to receive “Knighthood” from McConnell candidates have been told they must first run a well known gauntlet among republicans in Kentucky and emerge showing that they can raise substantial dollars.  The reward for surviving that gauntlet, as many before Trey have learned, however, has never been anything more than the so called honor of running the next gauntlet, then the next and all the ones after that. The McConnell school of successful campaigning has one course and it’s all about money.

McConnell’s role has often been described as the “architect” of the Kentucky GOP.  Candidates who seek his support will tell you, however, that he is more the task master, than an ally.  In many ways his role is nothing more than that of a personal trainer who drives his students to the breaking point, discards those who he breaks, and lays claim to those who succeed as if they are his property, forever thereafter insisting upon their loyalty to his agenda lest they suffer the wrath of his disapproval.

Grayson has now put himself in a tough position.  His “leave no stone unturned” approach to fundraising means that he has probably raised all he is capable of raising, giver or take a hundred thousand or so.  And yet he is not a candidate. 

He still insists that he will not run against Jim Bunning, who yesterday congratulated Trey on a good show, and yet insists he will remain in the race and plans to be running through November 2010.

Under these circumstances, what does Grayson do now?  Does he ride out his term limited job as Secretary of State, spending his “exploratory money” to help pay for his travel around the state which had to be tough to pay for on his state salary?  Does he use this federal money to troll for an opportunity in a state office in the future?  Does he jump in against Bunning despite his pledge not to?  And if he does that, doesn’t he have to be critical of the job Bunning has done?  Won’t he then find himself ostracized by republicans for his disloyalty, and perhaps even dishonesty?

Or does he withdraw from serious consideration, suffer the tarnish of timidity, endorse Bunning and just hope everyone understands that he was just “antsy”?  If so, might he appear uncertain, hesitant and timid?  Will that image potentially dash any hope he might once have held of being identified as a leader?

It probably seemed like a good idea at the time to boast about all the fundraisers he was going to be holding.  It might have even seemed like a good idea to brag about raising $600,000.  But right now the other horses in the race appear not to have even really warmed up yet and Grayson is appearing a little bit spent.

Bunning has the experience to know this is a marathon, not a sprint.  Conway spends enough time with a hairbrush to know that in the early stages of a campaign it’s all about image.  But Grayson has spent so much time trying to paint himself as the picture of the winner what he might have ended up doing instead, is painting himself into a corner.

Comments

[nky business women]

one of the best you have written in a long time.